Fed Cuts Rates: What This Means for Southern California's Housing Market
For the first time since 2020, the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate by half a percentage point last week. This move, although widely anticipated by the market, didn’t immediately impact mortgage rates. However, the central bank's ongoing strategy of lowering rates is expected to bring long-term benefits to homebuyers and sellers in Southern California.
Rate Cuts and the Impact on Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut marks the first in four years, with two additional cuts likely before the year ends. With inflation trending downward and job growth slowing, experts predict that mortgage rates will gradually decline throughout the rest of 2024 and into 2025. Although rates ticked up slightly after the announcement, the overall trend should continue downward, providing relief to prospective homebuyers.
Housing Market Trends: Buyers in ‘Wait and See’ Mode
Despite lower mortgage rates, home sales in California took a step back in August. Closed sales fell by 6.3% from July, reaching a seven-month low. However, pending sales are showing signs of improvement, with a 7.7% year-over-year increase in August. This upward trend in pending sales could lead to a solid rebound in closed sales by September, as buyers who had adopted a “wait and see” approach may return to the market.
Moderating Home Prices in California
Home prices in California continue to grow, but at a slower pace. The statewide median price in August showed a modest 3.4% increase year-over-year, marking the smallest gain since September of last year. Month-over-month, prices rose just 0.2%, the smallest July-to-August increase since 2008. While prices may soften as the market enters the off-season, year-over-year growth is still expected through the end of the year.
Home Building Sees a Boost
In August, U.S. residential construction rebounded, with housing starts surging 9.6% from the previous month. Lower mortgage rates and an improving outlook for builders fueled this growth, particularly in single-family homes, where construction activity saw a strong 15.8% increase. However, the momentum may slow as more existing homes come on the market, potentially reducing demand for new construction.
Outlook for Southern California’s Market
While the Fed's recent rate cuts may not have an immediate impact on mortgage rates, the long-term outlook for the housing market is positive. As rates gradually decline and home prices soften, buyers and sellers in Southern California could see increased activity throughout the fall and into 2025.
If you have any questions about how these trends could affect your home buying or selling decisions, feel free to reach out!
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